湖南省暴雨灾害气象防灾减灾服务效益评估研究

Study on the benefit evaluation of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation service of rainstorm disaster in Hunan province

针对暴雨灾害气象防灾减灾服务,重点考虑决策服务效益、公众服务效益、社会服务效益指标及不可避免损失因子,基于逆推法建立湖南省暴雨灾害气象防灾减灾服务效益评估模型。利用该模型对湖南省2011—2015年6次典型暴雨天气过程的气象防灾减灾服务效益进行评估。结果表明,近年来湖南省暴雨灾害决策服务效益、社会服务效益基本呈上升趋势,公众服务效益波动性较大;暴雨灾害气象防灾减灾服务效益占灾害直接经济损失的38.6%~57.0%,单次暴雨过程气象防灾减灾服务效益值最高达13.66亿元。

Aiming at the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation service of rainstorm disaster,the index of decision service benefit,public service benefit,social service benefit and inevitable loss factors were mainly considered,and the benefit evaluation model of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation service of rainstorm disaster in Hunan province was established based on the backstepping method.The model was used to evaluate the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation service benefit of six typical rainstorm weather processes in Hunan province from 2011 to 2015.The results showed that in recent years,the decision service benefit and social service benefit of rainstorm disaster in Hunan province were basically on the rise,and the public service benefit fluctuated greatly;the benefit of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation service of rainstorm disaster accounted for 38.6%~57.0% of the direct economic loss of disaster,and the benefit of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation service in a single rainstorm process was up to 1.366 billion yuan.