基于AHP-TOPSIS最优组合赋权的台风灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disaster in South China Based on Optimal Combination Weights of AHP-anti-entropy-TOPSIS

该文从台风致灾源危险性、承灾体脆弱性、防灾减灾能力三个方面来选取评价指标,提出了一个基于AHP-TOPSIS最优组合赋权的华南台风灾害风险评估模型.主要基于改进的层次分析法(AHP)和TOPSIS方法计算评价指标的主观和客观权重,基于最小熵原理最优组合赋权计算台风的致灾源危险性指数、承灾体脆弱性指数和防灾减灾能力指数,进而利用TOPSIS方法计算其权重,得到台风灾害综合风险指数.对1984-2016年华南50个台风进行台风风险评估和等级划分,评估结果与实际情况基本一致.

In this paper,the evaluation indexes are selected from three aspects:the risk of typhoon disaster source,the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction,and a typhoon disaster risk assessment model in South China based on AHP-TOPSIS optimal combination weighting is proposed.Based on the improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and TOPSIS method,the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indexes are calculated.Based on the principle of minimum entropy,the hazard index of typhoon disaster source,the vulnerability index of disaster-bearing body and the ability index of disaster prevention and reduction are calculated.Then the weight is calculated by TOPSIS method,and the comprehensive risk index of typhoon disaster is obtained.Taking 50 typhoons in South China from 1984 to 2016 as an example,the typhoon risk assessment and classification are carried out,and the assessment results are basically consistent with the actual situation.