东亚产业链变迁与跨越“中等收入陷阱”——以泰国的经济发展为例

East Asian Industrial Chains Transformation and Leaping over “Middle-income Trap ”— A Case Study of Thailand s Economic Development

自二战结束以来,东亚经济体的发展基本都深嵌于东亚产业链的变迁过程之中。截至目前,日本与“四小龙”已顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”,而“四小虎”则陷入陷阱之中,东亚其他国家前景未定。根据前两组经济体的经验,一个国家或地区跨越/陷入“中等收入陷阱”的实质在于产业结构是否实现升级。对于单个国家或地区而言,东亚产业链变迁分为“产业迁入”和“产业迁出”两种情形,其中“产业迁出”为东亚经济体实现产业升级与跨越“中等收入陷阱”提供了必要的前提。在此过程中,一国还需与时俱进,对其产业政策进行调节,才能实现产业升级与跨越陷阱的目标。据此可以解释泰国在21世纪以来的东亚产业链变迁中陷入“中等收入陷阱”的原因。结合当前东亚产业链变迁和泰国产业政策调整的最新方向,这一规律也预示着未来泰国跨越“中等收入陷阱”仍将面临较大障碍。

Since the end of World War II,development of East Asian economies has been deeply embedded in the evolution of East Asian industrial chains.So far Japan and the Asian Tigers have successfully leaped over the“middle-income trap”,while the four Tiger Cub Economies have fallen into it,and the prospects of other East Asian countries are still uncertain.Based on the experience of Japan,the Asian Tigers and the four Tiger Cub Economies,whether an economy leap over or fall into the“middle-income trap”depends on whether its industrial structure can be upgraded or not.For a single economy,the change of East Asian industrial chains means two kinds of activities:“industry moving in”and“industry moving out”.“Industry moving out”is a necessary premise for East Asian economies to achieve industrial upgrading and leap over the“middle-income trap”.But there is also an important condition for an economy to finally leap over the trap,which lies in its government s advancing industrial policies with times.This explains why Thailand fell into the“middle-income trap”with the evolution of East Asian industrial chains in the 21st century.The current change of East Asian industrial chains and adjustment of Thailand s industrial policies also indicate that this country will still have some difficulties in crossing the“middle-income trap”in the future.