试论新冠疫情对世界政治的深远影响

The Profound Impacts of COVID Pandemic on World Politics

不少人把新冠疫情肆虐及全球战疫视为又一场世界大战。这场"新型世界大战"不动枪炮、不见硝烟,对人类造成的器物性损伤可能不及两次世界大战严重,但给人类造成的精神性、社会性损伤较之两次世界大战却有过之而无不及。受新冠疫情肆虐及全球战疫影响,"后疫情时代"的世界政治正在发生巨变,其中器物性变化包括国际力量对比与国际格局的变化等;社会性变化则包括人们社会心理的变化,有关全球化、世界政治及政治制度与文化范式孰优孰劣的认知变化,有关安全与发展以及发展的质与量相互间关系的变化,等等。在"后疫情时代"的世界政治中,以全球合作应对各类非传统安全威胁的客观需求将继续上升,这将直接影响国家间关系,为国际合作,尤其是大国合作提供新的驱动力和约束力,也将直接影响全球化进程、方向和范式。美国及西方世界如何直面其衰落趋势,尤其是如何直面其政治与文化体制的衰落趋势,直面世界地缘中心的权力转移,更是"后疫情时代"世界政治的一个新问题,并将对"后疫情时代"世界政治、国际安全与稳定产生直接冲击。

COVID-19 and the global fighting against the pandemic is considered as another World War. This World War starts without gun smoke, and may end with less material loss than World Wars. However, its spiritual and social harm goes even further than the two World Wars. The world politics is undergoing great changes in the post-COVID-19 era. International power and pattern is no more the same. People’s social philosophy changes, the recognition on judgment of globalization, world politics, political system and cultural paradigm alters, and the relations between security and development as well as the quality and quantity of development also changes. The demand on global cooperation in non-traditional security will increase. This would affect relations between nations, offer new driving and restraining forces, which will impact the process, direction and paradigm of globalization.