基于IAHP-SPA-GCM的城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性评价

Vulnerability assessment of PPP projects of urban rail transport based on IAHP-SPA-GCM

为准确分析城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性,提高项目抵抗能力,保障项目的顺利实施,提出了基于IAHP-SPA-GCM模型的城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性评价方法.首先采用Delphi法基于外部环境、项目特征、政府和社会资本方四维视角系统分析城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性因素,构建脆弱性指标体系.其次,运用IAHP-SPA法进行脆弱性指标权重赋权,解决传统区间层次分析法计算权重所存在的模糊性问题.最后,引入改进的指数型白化函数求解联系数确定脆弱性评价等级.应用该模型对青岛地铁2号线项目进行脆弱性分析,结果表明:构建的IAHP-SPA-GCM评价模型具有合理性和有效性,能有效帮助参与方对项目脆弱性进行准确评价,并针对性地提出管理控制措施,为项目薄弱环节管控提供了理论依据.

In order to accurately analyze the vulnerability of PPP project of urban rail transport,improve the project risk resistance,and ensure the smooth implementation of the project,a vulnerability assessment method for PPP project based on IAHP-SPA-GCM model is proposed.Firstly,the vulnerability factors of PPP project of urban rail transport are systematically analyzed from four-dimensional perspectives of external environment,project characteristics,government and social capital side using Delphi method.Secondly,IAHP-SPA method is used for the vulnerability index weight empowerment to solve the ambiguity of traditional interval analytic hierarchy process(IAHP).Finally,the improved exponential whitening function is introduced to solve the relation number and determine the vulnerability evaluation level.This model was applied to analyze the vulnerability of Qingdao metro line 2 project.The results show that the IAHP-SPA-GCM evaluation model constructed is reasonable and effective,which can effectively help participants to accurately evaluate the project vulnerability,and put forward targeted management and control measures.It also provides a theoretical basis for the management and control of weak links in the project.