基于蒙特卡罗法的乌江特大桥边坡稳定性可靠度分析

Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability Based on Monte Carlo Method

在边坡工程设计中常采用稳定性系数法评价边坡稳定性,但忽略了实际工程地质条件的变异性和不确定性。以瓮马铁路乌江特大桥桥址区的右岸高陡岩质边坡为例,基于蒙特卡罗法进行了边坡稳定性可靠度分析。研究表明,右岸岸坡整体处于稳定状态,不会发生大规模失稳破坏,仅岸坡上部较陡处处于欠稳定—基本稳定状态。

Stability coefficient method is often used to evaluate the stability of slope in slope design engineering,but the variability and uncertainty of engineering geological conditions are ignored.In this paper,taking the high and steep rock slope of Wujiang extra large bridge site on Weng Ma railway as an example,the reliability analysis of the stability of the right bank slope is carried out by using Monte Carlo method.The results show that the right the bank slope is in a stable state as a whole,and there will be no large-scale instability damage.Only at the steep upper part of the bank slope,the stability is poor,and it is in the state of under stability-basic stability.