基于多维极值分布的风雨荷载下输电线路风偏放电概率分析

Probability analysis of windage yaw discharge under wind and rain loads based on the multidimensional extreme value distribution

大风天气下通常伴随着降雨,强风雨荷载的冲击会对输电线路可靠性产生不利影响,导致风偏放电事故,对电力企业及用户侧造成重大损失。提出一种基于风速、风向和雨强三维联合分布模型的输电线路风偏放电概率预测模型。首先,以极值风速、极值雨强及其风向角为变量刻画风速、雨强、风向的分布特性,然后,考虑风速、雨强、风向的概率相关性,采用Archimedean Copulas函数建立多维联合概率分布,以此为基础得到输电线路风偏放电的实时概率预测模型。最后,通过Matlab编程实现该预测模型,并通过实例数据验证该输电线路风偏放电概率预测模型的合理性和有效性。

Heavy wind is usually accompanied by rainfall,the strong wind and rain load will have negative impacts on the reliability of transmission lines,which could result in windage yaw discharge accidents and leads to significant losses of power enterprises and the consumers.Therefore,a probability distribution model is proposed in this paper based on a three-dimensional joint distribution model,including the wind speed,wind direction and rainfall intensity.Firstly,the distribution characteristics of wind speed,rainfall intensity and wind direction are described by the extreme wind speed,extreme rainfall intensity and wind direction angle.Then,considering the probability of wind speed,rainfall intensity,and direction,Archimedean Copulas function is utilized to build the multidimensional joint probability distribution,which can further be used to build the real-time probability prediction model of windage yaw discharge of transmission line.Finally,the prediction model is realized by Matlab programming,and the effectiveness of the proposed probability prediction model for the windage yaw of transmission lines is verified through the realistic power systems data.