中印构建命运共同体的内涵、困境与可能性

The Connotation,Dilemma and Possibilities of Building a Community of Shared Destiny between China and India

中国和印度同为发展中国家,近年来迅速崛起受到世界关注,但由于战略和认知差异、边界问题、巴基斯坦问题以及域外大国的干扰等因素的影响,两国关系不断下滑。印度借助自身实力的增长和美国"印太战略"实施,不断挑起与邻国的矛盾,特别是加大力度与中国竞争,与其他国家一起制衡中国。在此背景下,中印命运共同体建设将面临巨大的困境和挑战。同时,中印在命运共同体构建过程中也存在认知偏差和"单向构建"的问题。不解决这些问题,中印要构建命运共同体将十分困难。近期,边界问题仍然是双方误解和矛盾加深的"爆发点",也是中印命运共同体构建的难点,这使得中印的博弈还会继续。但由于中印合作对双方、地区乃至世界影响巨大,和平共处、共同发展符合双方的共同利益。从博弈论中的"懦夫博弈"和"重复博弈"视角来看,博弈的策略会影响彼此的行为和偏好,而目前双方有避免热战的共同点,也有加强非传统安全领域的合作空间,未来双方构建命运共同体仍然存在可能性。中印双方应把握机遇,相互调整行为与偏好,不断增加构建命运共同体的正能量,以促进互利共赢、共同发展。

The relationship between China and India has been declining due to factors such as the strategic and cognitive differences,boundary issues.Relying on the growth of its own strength and the implementation of"Indo-Pacific Strategy"of the US,India has been constantly provoking conflicts with its neighbors,especially intensifying its efforts to compete with China and to counterbalance China with other countries.In this context,the building of the China-India community with a shared future will face enormous challenges.At the same time,there are also cognitive biases and"one-wayconstruction"problems in the process of building a community with a shared future.However,as China-India cooperation has a huge impact on both sides,the region and the world,peaceful coexistence and common development serve the common interests of both sides.From the perspective of"chicken game"and"repeated game"in game theory,game strategies will affect each other’s behavior and preference.And both sides have common ground to avoid hot war and space to strengthen cooperation in nontraditional security fields.It is still possible for both sides to build a community with a shared future.China and India should seize the opportunity,adjust their behaviors and preferences to each other,and increase the positive energy of building a community with a shared future so as to promote mutual benefit and common development.