碳中和目标下中国能源高质量发展路径研究

Research on the High-quality Development Path of China’s Energy Industry under the Target of Carbon Neutralization

高质量发展是中国当前和今后一个时期内发展的主题,能源高质量发展是国家高质量发展的必然要求。为应对全球气候变化、彰显大国担当和责任,中国向世界庄严宣布了碳中和的雄心目标,为实现这一目标,对中国能源高质量发展提出了新的、更高的要求,迫切需要探索碳中和背景下中国能源高质量发展的路径。从中国实际国情和碳减排目标出发,通过与其他国家相比较,得出中国在碳中和目标背景下能源高质量发展面临着能源需求总量和CO2排放量将继续增加、能源结构转型更加困难等挑战;但面临挑战的同时,也会倒逼能源高质量发展,抢占技术制高点,树立良好的国际形象。从碳中和的定义和目标出发,发现实现碳中和目标意味着要降低能源消费总量、化石能源占比和单位化石能源碳排放量,增加森林碳汇和发展CCS(含CCUS)。在此基础上,提出碳中和背景下中国能源高质量发展三大显性途径,即节能提效、优化能源结构和技术创新;以及一大隐性途径,即思想观念创新。对于全球来讲,应对气候变化是全球共同面临的挑战,需要各国共同努力去应对,必须加强国际间的合作。同时,针对性地提出,应加强顶层设计,出台面向2030年和2060年两大节点的《中国应对气候变化中长期国家行动方案》;围绕技术链和产业链,识别出关键核心技术纳入国家科技计划,并加强示范工程建设与推广应用;针对同种类别废物治理的弊端已经越来越明显,未来碳减排与“三废”协同治理将是大势所趋,建议深入探索协同治理机制。

To achieve high-quality development has become a committed goal of China’s socioeconomic development in the medium-and long-term future.Meanwhile,the high-quality development of energy is one of the fundamental requirements of holstering the country’s highquality development.In order to address the issues of global climate change and demonstrate China’s responsibility as a great power,China has pledged the ambitious goal of carbon neutralization,which puts forward new and higher requirements for promoting the high-quality development of China's energy industry.Therefore,there raises an urgent task to explore the high-quality development path of China’s energy industry in order to achieve the plausible policy goal of carbon neutralization.Taking full considerations of China’s socioeconomic and environmental conditions and carbon emission reduction targets,this study conducts a comparative study between China and different countries and find that China’s total energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions are projected to maintain a remarkable increase trajectory.The estimation results show that to fulfill carbon neutralization goal is a challenging policy goal,and the transformation of energy structure become a demanding task.Therefore,against the backdrop of achieving carbon neutralization,Chinese government has to promote the high-quality development of energy,accelerate technology progress,and establish a good international image.This paper identified five contributing factors to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization,namely,reducing total energy consumption,the proportion of fossil-based energy and carbon emissions per unit of fossil energy,increasing forest carbon sequestration and developing CCS(including CCUS).Based on the research outcomes,this paper provides three concrete policy recommendations,namely,energy saving and efficiency improvement,energy structure optimization and technological innovation,and ideological innovation of the public.Along with rapid globalization,to address climate change become a common challenge for the global society.Finally,this paper proposes to strengthen the top-level design and issue China's national action plan to ensure the two climate policy goals of 2030 and 2060;it is imperatively important to identify the core technologies in the technology and industry chains and strengthen the deployment,commercialization and application of demonstration projects;collaborative treatment of different pollutants is another important task which needs well-considered policy design and governance mechanisms innovation.