基于投入产出表的山东省水资源利用状况研究

Research on Water Resources Utilization Status in Shandong Province Based on Input-Output Tables

基于山东省1997、2002、2007、2012年可比价投入产出表估算三大产业的用水效率、用水效益及虚拟水净输出量变化情况,采用灰色关联分析法分析用水效率与产业结构合理化程度、用水效率与社会技术之间的关系。结果表明:15 a来山东省的用水效率和用水效益不断提高;第一产业虚拟水由净输出变为净输入,第二产业虚拟水净输出量先增加、后减小,第三产业虚拟水净输出量一直在增加;产业结构趋于合理化,间接消耗意义上的社会技术表现为退步;产业结构合理化及社会技术进步都有利于用水效率的提高,应进一步研究社会技术评价指标的选取。

Changes in water use efficiency and benefit as well as net output of virtual water of three main industries were evaluated based on comparable prices input-output tables of Shandong province in 1997,2002,2007,and 2012.Relationships between water use efficiency and rationalization level of industrial structure,as well as water use efficiency and social technology were analyzed by using grey correlation analysis method.The results show that water use efficiency and benefit in the past 15 a are continuously improved.Virtual water of the primary industry changes from net output to net input,net output of virtual water of the secondary industry increases first and then decreases,and net output of virtual water of the tertiary industry always increases.Industrial structure tends to be rationalized,and social technology in the sense of indirect consumption degrades.Rationalization of industrial structure and progress of social technology are all conducive to improvement of water use efficiency.Selection of social technology evaluation indexes should be further researched.