基于时变故障率的海底电缆可靠性模型研究

Reliability Model of Submarine Cable Based on Time-varying Failure Rate

海底电缆在运行过程中会受到复杂的海洋环境影响。一旦发生故障,将造成严重的经济损失和社会影响。首先,对海底电缆的故障原因进行了分析和分类;接着,根据故障历史数据,建立了基于海缆长度的静态可靠性模型;然后,提出了考虑运行环境变化的基于时变故障率的动态可靠性模型,该模型考虑了海底电缆运行过程中的季节性生产以及电、热条件变化对其可靠性的影响,为短期可靠性评估提供了计算基础;最后,以中国渤海某海上石油平台群电力系统中的海底电缆运行数据为实例,验证了该方法的有效性,填补了综合计算海缆可靠性参数方面研究的空白。

Submarine cables will be affected by the complicated marine environment during operation.Once the fault occurs,it will cause serious economic loss and social impact.This paper first analyzes and classifies the causes of submarine cable failures,then establishes a static reliability model based on the length of the submarine cable according to the failure history data,and proposes a variable failure rate model that takes into account changes in the operating environment.The model takes into account such factors as the seasonal production of submarine cables during operation,the influence of changes in electrical and thermal conditions on their reliability,it also provides a calculation basis for short-term reliability assessment.Finally,the article uses the submarine cable operating data of an offshore oil platform group power system in the Bohai Sea of China as an example to verify the effectiveness of the method and.This model can fill the gap in the comprehensive calculation of submarine cable reliability parameters.