基于灰色理论的陕西省土地利用变化及其碳排放研究

Study on land use change and carbon emission in Shaanxi Province based on grey theory

为了揭示陕西省2006—2018年碳排放变化规律,促进陕西省低碳土地利用模式构建,本文根据陕西省2006—2018年的土地利用数据构建碳排放模型及计算相关指数,分析土地利用的碳排放效应,通过灰色关联度分析,确定不同土地类型与碳排放的关联程度高低,运用GM(1,1)模型,预测出2020—2030年的土地碳排放量。得出以下结论:1)2008—2016年,未利用地动态度最大为-5.87%,其次为水域用地,动态度为-2.09%;再次为建设用地,动态度为1.99%;2)净碳排放总量从2006年的5395.43万t增长到2018年的13365.79万t,林地为主要的碳汇,其吸收的碳量由666.32万t增加到719.14万t,建设用地作为主要碳源,其产生的碳排放量由5891.10万t增加到13912.24万t;3)土地利用碳排放风险指数和压力指数处于增长的趋势;4)按照对碳排放影响大小,土地类型依次为林地、耕地、牧草地、建设用地、园地、未利用地、水域用地;5)经预测到2020年,碳排放总量约达到10668.30万t,到2030年,碳排放总量约达到10492.20万t。

In order to reveal the changes in carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province from 2006 to 2018, and to promote the selection of low-carbon soil utilization models in Shaanxi Province, this article builds a carbon emission model and calculates related indexes based on the land use data of Shaanxi Province from 2006 to 2018. The carbon emission effect of land use is analyzed, the degree of correlation between different soil types and carbon emissions through the gray correlation analysis is determined, and the GM(1, 1) model is used to predict the land carbon emissions from 2020 to 2030. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) From 2008 to 2016, the maximum dynamic degree of unused land is-5.87%, followed by that of water area land, with dynamic degree of-2.09%, and for construction land, with dynamic degree of 1.99%;2) Total net carbon emissions release increases from 53,954,300 tons in 2006 to 133,657,900 tons in 2018. Forest land is the main carbon sink, with the amount of carbon absorbed increasing from 6,663,200 tons to 7,191,400 tons. Construction land is used as the main carbon source. Its carbon emissions increases from 5,891,100 tons to 13,912,400 tons;3) Land use carbon emission risk index and pressure index are increasing;4) According to the impact on carbon emissions, the land types are forest land, arable land, pasture grassland, construction land, garden land, unused land, and water area land;5) It is predicted that by 2020, the total carbon emissions will reach approximately 106,683,000 tons, and by 2030 the total carbon emissions will reach approximately 104,922,000 tons.