考虑最优负荷削减与热负荷惯性的综合能源系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Integrated Energy System Considering Optimal Load Reduction and Thermal Load Inertia

综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)具有灵活调度和多能互济的特点,针对当前综合能源系统供能可靠性研究尚不充分的问题,提出一种考虑最优负荷削减与热负荷惯性的综合能源系统可靠性评估方法。首先,建立了综合能源系统总停供损失期望指标,充分体现了综合能源系统停供能造成的经济损失;其次,考虑能源品位、负荷重要度、热负荷惯性,建立了故障场景下综合考虑运行成本最小与加权停供负荷量最小为目标的综合能源系统最优负荷削减模型,采用CPLEX软件求解获得电热负荷削减功率和元件设备出力;然后,基于序贯蒙特卡洛模拟原理,设计了综合能源系统可靠性评估方法和流程;最后,通过算例仿真进行验证。算例分析表明,采用最优负荷削减策略和考虑热负荷惯性能够有效提升综合能源系统的可靠性水平。

The integrated energy system(IES)has the characteristics of flexible scheduling and mutual aiding among multiple energies.Aiming at the current insufficient research on the reliability of IES energy supply,an IES reliability evaluation method considering optimal load reduction and thermal load inertia is proposed.The expected index of the total loss of the IES from power outage is established,which fully reflects the economic loss caused by the power outage of the IES.Considering energy grade,load importance,and thermal load inertia,an optimal load reduction model for IES is established,which takes into account the minimum operating cost and the minimum weighted outage load under failure scenarios.The CPLEX software is applied to solve the proposed problem in order to obtain the electric and thermal load reduction power and component equipment output.According to the principle of sequential Monte Carlo simulation,an IES reliability assessment method and its process are designed.The calculation example analysis shows that the reliability level of IES can be improved effectively by using optimal load reduction strategy and considering thermal load inertia.