以培育新优势实现中国制造业转型升级

Cultivating New Advantage to Upgrade the Transformation of China’s Manufacturing Industry

培育我国制造业新优势以实现由制造业带动的国内大循环的良性运转,是我国经济进入新发展阶段、构建新发展格局的关键。本文构建了制造业转型升级影响指标体系,运用熵理论、灰色关联分析法,测算2003—2018年消费水平、技术创新、人力资本、国际投资与贸易、政策环境五个一级指标与我国制造业增加值、技术效率关联度,研究得出:2003—2018年,我国制造业系统结构演化遵循均衡—非均衡—均衡趋势,消费水平与制造业转型升级关系最为密切,且关联值在考察期内处于稳定状态;技术创新、人力资本、政策环境、国际投资和贸易与制造业转型升级的协同性排名由大到小依次排序,动态变化均表现为先提高后降低的倒U型趋势。开发国内消费市场、加大技术和制度双维度创新、培育匹配性人才是推进我国制造业由低成本优势向技术优势转换,实现转型升级的有效路径。

Cultivating the new advantage of China’s manufacturing industry to bring about the sound operation of the national circulation supported by the manufacturing industry is the key for China’s economic development to enter a new development phase and construct a new development pattern.By using Entropy theory and Grey relational analysis,this paper aims to calculate the correlation between the five indexes,namely technology innovation,human capital,international investment and trade and policy environment of 2003—2018 and value-addedness and technology efficiency of the manufacturing industry.We conclude that from 2003—2018,the evolution tendency of China’s manufacturing industry followed a balance-imbalance-balanced style.The level of consumption and the upgrading of the transformation of the manufacturing industry enjoy the closest connection.The correlation value remains stable during the survey period.The cooperativity ranking of the international innovation,human capital,policy environment,international investment and trade goes from high to low,and the dynamic variation has demonstrated a tendency of an inverted U type.So,the effective ways to realize the development of manufacturing industry from low-cost advantage to technological manufacturing in order to upgrade the manufacturing industry lie in developing domestic consumption market,strengthening technology and institution innovation and cultivating required talents.