现代中国海关货物贸易统计主流地位的回顾与展望——海关系统外两代统计学人的视角

Retrospect and Prospect of Modern China Customs’Mainstream Status in the Statistics of Trade in Goods——From the Perspective of Two Generations of Statisticians Outside Customs

在当今中国,举凡对货物贸易统计做研究,势必想到海关统计,或者说海关统计就是货物贸易统计的代名词。然而这种对应关系在几十年前并非自然存在,几乎在整个20世纪后半叶,曾有对外贸易业务统计与海关统计平行存在的情形。本文从对外经济贸易大学两代统计学人的视角,回顾了现代中国海关货物贸易统计主流地位演进历程,剖析了中美货物贸易统计差异的原因,澄清了贸易增加值核算的相关表述,并对数字经济背景下海关统计工作的创新进行展望。

Nowadays,any study on the statistics of trade in goods will definitely invoke the customs statistics,or in other words,customs statistics is another term for the statistics of trade in goods.However,this natural correspondence between them did not exist several decades ago.During the nearly whole period of the latter half of the 20 th century,there were foreign trade statistics and customs statistics existing in parallel.From the perspective of two generations of statisticians in UIBE,this paper reviews the evolution of customs statistics as the mainstream in the statistics of trade in goods,analyzes the causes for the disparities in the statistics of trade in goods between China and the US,clarifies the terms related to the accounting of value-added trade and forecasts the innovation of customs statistics against the backdrop of digital economy.