域外竞争、政治关系与国际贸易——以中国与“一带一路”沿线国家为例

Extraterritorial Competition,Political Relations and International Trade:An Empirical Study Based on Trade between China and the BRI Countries

中国和“一带一路”沿线国的经贸往来受到双边政治关系和美国作为域外大国的竞争政策的影响,中美大国关系变化也会溢出到“一带一路”沿线国。本文利用中国和62个“一带一路”沿线国1995—2018年的年度数据,实证检验中国、美国和沿线国“三角”政治关系及其互动对中国和沿线国贸易的复杂影响。实证结果表明,中国和沿线国之间的高层互访和外交关系持续期均有助于促进双边贸易,但中美关系紧张会溢出到沿线国,抑制其与中国的双边贸易,美国在沿线国的较强贸易地位也会削弱中国和沿线国的双边贸易。作为美国域外竞争工具的对外援助和盟国对中国和沿线国贸易具有复合影响,接受美国对外援助的国家身份和盟国身份单独都会产生促进沿线国与中国贸易的贸易创造效应,但接受援助且是盟国的身份却产生贸易抑制效应。纳入中美关系变化的序贯博弈后,中美关系恶化使得中国和沿线国之间的高层互访对双边贸易的激励作用显著增强,且主要发生在美国贸易地位较低的沿线国;但中美关系恶化后,美国对外援助对中国和沿线国的贸易抑制效应却不明显,表现出域外竞争工具作用的复合影响及其在抑制中国贸易上的作用局限。

The economic and trade exchanges between China and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative are affected by their bilateral political relations and the extraterritorial competition policy of the U.S.,as a great power not in the region,meanwhile changes in the ChinaU.S.relations also spill over to the countries along the BRI.Panel data of 62 BRI countries from 1995 to 2018 is used to empirically test the impact of triangular political relationship and interaction between China,the U.S.and the BRI countries on trade between China and the BRI countries.The results show that highlevel reciprocal visits and the duration of diplomatic relations between China and each BRI country could promote bilateral trade,but the tension of ChinaU.S.relations will spill over to the BRI countries and restrain their trade with China and stronger American trade position in the BRI countries could weaken their trade with China.Foreign aid and allies as competition tools of the U.S.have a compound effect on trade between China and the BRI countries,i.e.,accepting the U.S.foreign aid and alliance status have a trade creation effect that respectively promotes trade between the BRI countries and China,but the allied country receiving the U.S.aid produces a suppression effect.When introducing a sequential game of ChinaU.S.relation,the deterioration of the ChinaU.S.relationship significantly enhanced the role of highlevel reciprocal visits between China and the BRI countries in promoting their bilateral trade,which occurred mainly in countries with low trade status of the U.S.After the ChinaU.S.relationship deteriorated,the effect of the American foreign aid was not significant,showing the limitation of American competition tools’role in restraining China’s trade.