泰国军队与政治的关系及其发展趋势分析

An Analysis of the Current Situation and Trend of the Relationship between the Thai Army and Politics

泰国自1932年建立君主立宪制以来至今政变频仍,过去80多年的政治发展史也是一部军队频繁干政史。2014年5月,巴育将军领导军人推翻民选政府,截至2020年8月,军队此次已经连续主政6年有余。出现这种状况的原因比较复杂,军队主观层面的原因有:军人政治使命感、军人自豪感、军人对文人政府有些做法感到愤怒等;客观层面的原因有:军队干政面临的国内外环境较为有利,因为2014年民众希望军队出手平息持久乱局,而其他政治力量长期无法挑战军队在政治上的主导地位,军队发动政变和长期主政面临的国际压力也不大。目前,泰国军队没有退出政治的意愿,仍继续主导政府。然而,2020年,巴育政府出现重大人事调整,又面临经济大幅下滑和民众抗议的压力,其执政稳定性引起忧虑,军人在政治上的主导地位也受到一定影响。

Since the establishment of constitutional monarchy in Thailand in 1932,there have been frequent coupsand the history of political development in the past 80 years is also a history of frequent military administration.General Prayut led the military to overthrow the elected government in May,2014.As of August 2020,the military has been in power for more than six consecutive years.The reasons for this situation are complicated.The subjective reasons of the army are:the military's sense of political mission,the military's sense of pride,and the military's anger at some practices of the literati government,etc.On the other hand,the objective reasons include the fact thatthe environment for the army to intervene in politics is more favorable at home and abroad,because in 2014,the public hoped that the military would help to quell the lasting chaos while other political forces could not challenge the military’s dominant position in politics for a long time and nor was there much international pressure on the army to stage a coup and govern for a long time.At present,the Thai army has no desire to withdraw from politics and continues to dominate the government.However,in 2020,the Prayut government experienced major personnel adjustment,and plus the pressure of sharp economic decline and public protest,its stability has raised concerns,and the military’s leading position in politics was also affected to some extent.