预测经济走势的指标与方法:基于文献综述的视角

Indicators and Methods for Predicting Economic Trend:A Literature Review Perspective

本文通过对国内外相关文献和实践做法的梳理,归纳了预测经济走势的主要领先指标和预测方法,并从审慎看待预测指标和预测方法发出的信号、完善经济走势预测的理论基础、提升预测的前瞻性和有效性、压缩危机确认的滞后期四个方面提出了未来开展研究和制定政策的方向。

Since Mitchell and Burns first took the lead in 1938,the economic recession prediction field has achieved a series of achievements after more than 80 years of development.The article summarizes the main leading indicators and methods for forecasting economic recession by combing relevant domestic and foreign literatures and practices,and puts forward the direction for future research and policy formulation,including:cautiously considering the signals sent by forecasting indicators and methods;To further improve the theoretical basis of economic recession forecast;to further enhance the forward-looking and effective forecast;to further reduce the lag period of crisis confirmation.For the domestic,the article believes that in the future,we should closely track the progress of foreign research and carry out more localized research in accordance with China's actual situation;further integrate and improve existing practices,enhance the authority and effectiveness of prediction,and provide strong support for government scientific decision-making.