地方政府专项债券风险测度及优化建议——以H省为例基于KMV模型的实证分析

The Risk Measurement and Optimization Suggestions on Local Government Special Bond——Empirical analysis based on KMV model taking H province as an example

发行地方政府专项债券是实施积极财政政策、加大逆周期调节、实现“六稳”“六保”的重要手段。本文梳理了地方政府债务风险领域相关研究成果,分析了H省专项债券规模及使用情况,使用KMV模型测度了H省专项债券使用风险,提出合理使用专项债资金、有效防范专项债券风险的建议。

Issuing local government special debt recommendations is an important means to implement institutionally regulated fiscal policies,increase general-term adjustments,and realize"LIU YUE"and"YUN BAO".This paper sorts out the relevant research results of the local government debt risk line,analyzes the scale and use of the special bonds of H Province,and uses the KMV model to measure the risk of the use of special bonds in H Province.And this paper puts forward suggestions on the rational use of special debt-funded enterprises to effectively prevent the risks of special bonds.