我国区域间制造业转移及其结构演进研究

Research on China’s Inter-Regional Manufacturing Transfer and Its Structural Evolution

在产业转移及转型升级的背景下,以2006、2011、2016年我国21个主要制造业工业销售产值及从业人员为研究数据,应用动态集聚指数、产业梯度系数、改进偏离份额模型(SSM)等方法,对我国制造业转移及其结构演进进行探究。研究发现:(1)研究期内,制造业转移的主体是劳动密集型与部分技术密集型制造业,转移的方向是从东部向中西部地区,但2011~2016年江苏、浙江等地的化学原料、医药等制造业出现了较强的空间集聚态势;(2)东部地区的食品制造业、饮料制造业、金属冶炼业等边际产业的转移与技术授让,不仅优化了自身的产业组织形态,还促进了中西部地区制造业规模化、集聚化发展,而辽宁、吉林、黑龙江等地则须防范产业流失,引导制造业集聚发展;(3)研究期内,上海、广东等东部地区制造业结构效应指数W大于1,且平均结构偏离分量P较大,表明其制造业含有较大比重的朝阳产业,制造业产业结构较好;湖南、贵州等中西地区制造业竞争效果指数U大于1,且平均竞争效应较大,表明其制造业发展较为迅速,竞争力较强。研究有助于厘清在产业转移及转型升级的背景下,我国制造业转移及其结构演进的新特征,为我国经济、产业高质量发展提供借鉴意义。

Under the background of industrial transfer and transformation and upgrading, this paper takes 21 major manufacturing industries’ industrial sales value and employees in 2006, 2011 and 2016 as research data, and uses dynamic agglomeration index, industrial gradient coefficient and improved Shift Share Model(SSM) to explore China’s manufacturing transfer and its structural evolution. The study found that:(1) During the research period, the main body of manufacturing industry transfer is labor-intensive and part of technology-intensive manufacturing industry, and the direction of transfer is from the east to the central and western regions. However, from 2011 to 2016, chemical raw materials, medicine and other manufacturing industries in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have shown a strong spatial agglomeration trend;(2) The marginal industrial transfer and technology grants in the food and beverage manufacturing industry and metal smelting industry in the eastern region not only optimized their industrial organization, but also promoted the scale and concentration of manufacturing in the central and western regions, while Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and other places must guard against the loss of industry and guide the development of manufacturing industry;(3) During the study period, the structural effect index w of manufacturing industry in eastern regions such as Shanghai and Guangdong is greater than 1, and the average structural deviation component p is larger, indicating that its manufacturing industry contains a relatively large proportion of sunrise industries and its industrial structure is better. Hunan, Guizhou and other central and western regions of the manufacturing industry competition effect index U is greater than 1, and the average competitive effect is larger, indicating that its manufacturing industry is developing faster and more competitive. The research helps to clarify the new characteristics of China’s manufacturing transfer and its structural evolution in the context of industrial transfer and transformation and upgrading since the financial crisis, and provide reference for China’s high-quality economic and industrial development.