退耕还林工程对农户收入增长和收入分配影响的测度与分析——基于长期跟踪大农户样本数据

Measuring the Impact of Sloping Land Conversion Program on Farmer Household Income Growth and Income Distribution——Based on Long-term Continuous Tracking Large Sample Data

为恢复退化生态系统,20世纪末中国政府启动了退耕还林工程。提高农户收入是退耕还林工程两个核心目标之一,退耕还林工程与我国深度贫困发生地区高度重叠。党的十八大以来,精准扶贫上升到国家战略层面,实施退耕还林工程是否提高农户收入和农村扶贫具有积极作用引起中国政府和学界高度关注。文章利用6省区15市县72个乡镇216个行政村的952个样本农户1995-2016年的连续跟踪调研平衡面板数据和收入决定方程,估计了退耕还林工程对样本农户收入增长与收入不平等的影响;在此基础上,基于收入增长和收入不平等路径,测度了退耕还林工程对农村扶贫的影响。经验性结果表明:(1)实施退耕还林工程促进样本农户以土地为基础的收入增长了10.80%,对样本农户非农收入的影响不显著。(2)实施退耕还林工程拉大了样本农户的收入不平等,2003-2016年,退耕还林工程对基尼系数的贡献率保持在1.60%~2.80%之间。(3)在样本区域,退耕还林工程产生了良好的扶贫效果,1999-2016年退耕还林工程对农村减贫的贡献率维持在0.12%~1.67%之间。基于本研究得出的结论,政府部门应调整退耕还林工程政策,需要进一步体现其在农户增收和农村扶贫方面发挥的积极作用。需谨慎调整退耕还林工程补助政策,加大对经济林等退耕还林工程后续产业的扶持,强化对参与退耕还林工程农户生产要素配置优化的帮助和引导。同时,需要关注由实施退耕还林工程所引发的农户收入差距拉大问题,通过适度向低收入和贫困群体的政策倾斜,实现退耕还林工程区生态改善、农户收入增长、收入差距缩小和脱贫致富的共赢。

In order,to restore the degraded ecosystems,the Chinese government initiated the Sloping Land Conversion Program at the end of 20 th century.Increasing farmers’income is one of the two core objectives of the Sloping Land Conversion Program.The coverage of the Sloping Land Conversion Program highly overlaps with areas where extreme poverty occurs in China.Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,targeted poverty alleviation and ecological civilization construction have been elevated as a national strategic level.Whether the implementation of the Sloping Land Conversion Program has a positive effect on increasing farmers’income and rural poverty alleviation deserves the attention of the Chinese government and academia.In this study,based on the balanced panel data and income determination equations of 952 sample households in 216 administrative villages from 72 towns in 15 cities of 6 provinces from 1995 to 2016 obtained by continuous followup research,the effect of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on the income growth and income inequality of sample farmer households was estimated,and on such basis,the impact of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on rural poverty alleviation was measured based on the paths of change including income growth,income inequality,etc.The following conclusions can be drawn from the empirical results of this study.(1)The implementation of the Sloping Land Conversion Program increased the land-based income of the sample farmer households by 10.80%,and the impact on the non-agricultural income of the sample farmer households was not significant.(2)The implementation of the Sloping Land Conversion Program increased the income inequality of the sample farmer households;from 2003 to 2016,the contribution rate of the Sloping Land Conversion Program to the Gini coefficient remained between 1.60%and 2.80%.(3)In the sample area,the Sloping Land Conversion Program has produced a good poverty alleviation effect.The improvement brought by the Sloping Land Conversion Program on rural poverty reduction from 1999 to 2016 was between 0.12%and 1.67%.Based on the conclusions of this study,the government should adjust the Sloping Land Conversion Program policy to further reflect its positive role in increasing farmers’income and poverty alleviation in rural areas.It is necessary to cautiously adjust the subsidy policy of the Sloping Land Conversion Program,increase support for the following industries of the Sloping Land Conversion Program such as economic forests,and strengthen assistance and guidance for the optimization of the allocation of production factors for farmers participating in the Sloping Land Conversion Program.Meanwhile,it is necessary to focus on the problem of increasing income inequality caused by the implementation of the Sloping Land Conversion Program,and to achieve the comprehensive upgrade including ecological improvement,income growth,reduction of income gap and reduction of poverty of farmers through appropriate policies that favor lowincome and poor groups in the areas covered by the Sloping Land Conversion Program.