考虑不确定性因素的综合能源系统协同规划研究

Research on cooperative planning of an integrated energy system considering uncertainty

为提高新能源高比例接入的综合能源系统能源配置效率,对新能源不确定性建模和综合能源系统协同规划进行了深入研究。首先描述了风电出力和电动汽车充电负荷的不确定模型。然后提出一种基于随机模型的最大熵方法对风电出力和电动汽车充电负荷的边缘概率分布进行建模,并采用主成分分析方法提取典型运行场景集;考虑园区内供冷期、供暖期和过渡期三个场景建立综合能源系统协同规划模型,并使用YALMIP工具求解。仿真算例结果表明,所述方法能够在考虑不确定性因素的基础上得到经济效益更高的协同规划方案,有效提高综合能源系统的经济性和灵活性。

In order to improve the energy allocation efficiency of a high proportion of new energy integrated energy systems,an in-depth study of new energy uncertainty modeling and integrated energy system cooperative planning is conducted.This paper first describes the uncertain models of wind power output and electric vehicle charging load.Then a maximum entropy method based on a stochastic model is proposed to model the marginal probability distribution,and the principal component analysis method is used to extract typical operating scenarios.Finally,it considers the three scenarios of cooling period,heating period and transition period in a park to establish an integrated energy system cooperative planning model and use YALMIP tools to solve it.The results of simulation examples show that the method can obtain a cooperative planning scheme with higher economic value considering the uncertainty factors,and effectively improve the economy and flexibility of the integrated energy system.