2020年香港经济形势分析及未来展望

Analysis of Hong Kong’s Economy in 2020 and Its Prospects in 2021

报告从宏观层面对2020年香港经济形势进行了分析,对2021年香港经济发展前景做了展望,对香港经济中期发展面临的风险和机遇进行了研判,并提出了一些对策和建议。分析表明,香港经济在2020年陷入深度衰退,在2021年将迎来复苏,复苏程度取决于疫情防控状况。香港经济未来几年的发展风险与机遇并存:一方面,中美竞争加剧、社会贫富差距加大、政府财政赤字持续等是不利因素;另一方面,我国"十四五"规划的出台和粤港澳大湾区建设的深入推进将帮助香港进一步融入国家发展大局,获得更广阔的发展空间。

The paper makes macro-analysis of Hong Kong’s economic situation in 2020,provides its prospects for 2021,examines the medium-term development risks and opportunities,and accordingly puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.The analysis shows that Hong Kong’s economy entered a deep recession in 2020 and will recover in 2021,the extent of which depends on the progress on the fight against COVID-19 pandemic.In the next few years,risks and opportunities will co-exist.On the one hand,the increasingly intensified Sino-US competition,the widening income gap and the chronic government budget deficit will continue to pose challenges.On the other hand,the implementation of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and the continuous development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will involve Hong Kong more deeply into the national development drive and expand its space for development.