从属侧施压:同盟强化还是同盟瓦解?——“进攻性楔子战略”成败的政治条件及其类型化研究

Exerting“Subordinate-Side Pressure”:Alliance Consolidation or Disintegration?—A Study on the Political Conditions and Types of“Offensive Wedge Strategy”

在研究同盟分化的议程中,关于“楔子战略”的类型化研究很多,但是关于不同类型“楔子战略”背后差异化的因果机制及其传导过程的研究却很少。“从属侧施压”是“进攻性楔子战略”的一个重要组成部分,它特指利用危机向特定类型敌对联盟中的次要盟友进行安全施压,进而促成敌对联盟内部关系紧张直至瓦解的一种同盟分化手段。通过对“从属侧施压”这一微观同盟理论各要素间共变关系的研究发现,大国间“现有权势对比”“权力变动趋势”和“权力盈亏态势判定”是决定“从属侧施压”战略实施效果的三个核心变量。同盟主导国在“实力较强”且“趋势焦虑”情势下介入盟友危机的意愿最强,反之则最弱。对于“实力较强但趋势占优”和“实力较弱且趋势焦虑”两种不确定情况,借助于“前景理论”对同盟主导国“权力盈亏态势”进行辅助判别,则具有较强的解释力。该理论的提出,不仅对现有“进攻性楔子战略”具体实施条件、时机把握与策略选择有着较强的现实指导意义,也有助于战略实施方避免因条件与时机误判而促成事与愿违的敌对同盟强化。

The research agenda of alliance-splitting abounds in studies on the types of“wedge strategy”,but lacks literature on the causal mechanism behind the differentiation of different types of“wedge strategy”as well as its conductive process.As a key component of the“offensive wedge strategy”,“subordinate-side pressure”refers to a means of splitting an alliance,employing crises to exert security pressures on the subordinate allies in an alliance and causing tension within it until its disintegration.Through studies on the covariant relationship among the elements of this microscopic alliance theory,the findings are that“existing power comparison”,“power changing tendency”and“power gain-loss judgment”among major powers are the three core variables that determine the implementation effect of the“subordinate-side pressure”strategy.The willingness of the leading country to intervene in its ally’s crisis tends to be the strongest under the condition of“strength advantage”and“trend anxiety”,while it will be the weakest the other way around.As for the two uncertain situations of“possessing strength advantage with trend dominance”and“suffering strength disadvantage with trend anxiety”,the explanation will be more compelling when applying the“prospect theory”to the auxiliary judgment of“power gain-loss situation”of the leading country in the alliance.The proposal of this theory of exerting“subordinate-side pressure”not only has great significance of practical guidance for the specific implementation conditions,timing,and strategy selection of the existing“offensive wedge strategy”,but also helps the strategy-implementer avoid the counterproductive result of strengthening the ties among members of a hostile alliance due to the misjudgment of conditions and timing.