虚拟土地进口视角下的中美农产品贸易效益分析

Analysis on the Benefits of Sino-US Agricultural Trade from the Perspective of Virtual Land Import

2018年以来,中美农产品贸易受两国贸易争端影响严重,2020年初中美签署的第一阶段经贸协议,对两国后续农产品贸易具有深远影响。基于要素禀赋理论和机会成本理论,本文对2001~2019年中国进口美国7类最主要的农产品的贸易动态、虚拟土地含量和虚拟土地面积以及进口效益进行分析发现:中国对美国农产品的虚拟土地面积进口呈总体上升趋势,但2018年以来降幅明显;在7类农产品中,大豆、谷物和棉花对虚拟土地面积进口量及变化趋势做出了较大贡献;将进口美国农产品节省的土地用于国内建设,具有更高的效益和替代价值。提高对美农产品的虚拟土地进口是解决我国土地资源短缺的重要途径,我国应在增加对美农产品进口的同时,优化对美农产品进口结构,合理配置国内土地资源,提高农产品的虚拟土地进口带来的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益。

Since 2018,Sino-US agricultural trade has been seriously affected by the trade dispute between the two countries. The signing of China-US phase-one economic and trade agreement in early 2020 will have a profound impact on the subsequent agricultural product trade of the two countries. Based on the factor endowment theory and opportunity cost theory,a study is conducted in this paper to analyze the trade dynamics,virtual land content,virtual land area,and import benefits of the 7 most important agricultural products imported by China from the United States from 2001 to 2019. The result indicates that China’s virtual land area import of US agricultural products shows a rising trend in general,but the decline has been significant since 2018. Among the 7 categories of agricultural products,soybean,grain and cotton have made a great contribution to the import volume and change trend of virtual land area. The land saved by importing American agricultural products is used for domestic construction,which will have higher efficiency and alternative value. Therefore,it is rational for China to increase the import of American agricultural products. It can be concluded that to increase the virtual land import of American agricultural products is an important way to deal with the shortage of land resources in China. On the one hand,it is important for China to increase the import of U. S. agricultural products and the import structure of agricultural products from the United States. One the other hand,it is still essential to rationally allocate domestic land resources and improve the economic,ecological and social benefits brought by virtual land import of agricultural products.