牡丹江地区山楂最佳采收期评价

Evaluation on Optimum Harvest Time of Hawthorn in Mudanjiang Area

[目的]评价牡丹江地区山楂最佳采收期。[方法]对牡丹江地区山楂果实发育情况进行观测,应用Logistic方程拟合山楂果实生长曲线。[结果]表明,Logistic方程拟合优度(R2)为0.95513,拟合效果好,模型选择正确,预测结果较真。[结论]最佳采收期应不迟于山楂落花后第19.8周,牡丹江地区表现为应在10月上旬进行采摘。

[Objective]To evaluate the best harvest time of Hawthorn in Mudanjiang.[Method]The growth shape of hawthorn in Mudanjiang was observed,and the growth curve of hawthorn was fitted with Logistic equation.[Results]The goodness of fit(R2)was 0.95513 indicating the fitting effect of Logistic equation was quite good,the model selection was correct and the prediction result was greatly accurate.[Conclusion]The best harvest time according to the model should not be later than 19.8 weeks after the flowering date of hawthorn.As to Mudanjiang region,it should be picked in early October.