Logistic模型评价寒地果桑最佳采收期

Evaluation of the Best Harvest Time of Mulberry in Cold Region by Logistic Model

[目的]评价牡丹江地区果桑最佳采收期。[方法]对牡丹江地区果桑果实发育情况进行观测,应用Logistic方程拟合果桑果实生长曲线。[结果]Logistic方程拟合优度(R^(2))为0.96295,拟合效果好,模型选择正确,预测结果较真。[结论]最佳采收期应不迟于果桑落花后第5.34周,牡丹江地区应在5月下旬进行采摘。

[Objective]To evaluate the best harvest time of mulberry in Mudanjiang.[Method]The growth shape of mulberry in Mudanjiang was observed,and the growth curve of mulberry was fitted with Logistic equation.[Result]The goodness of fit(R^(2))was 0.96295 indicating the fitting effect of Logistic equation was quite good,the model selection was correct and the prediction result was greatly accurate.[Conclusion]The best harvest time according to the model should not be later than 5.34 weeks after the flowering date of mulberry.As to Mudanjiang region,it should be picked in late May.