我国跨境资金流出的宏观风险评估与应对策略

A Study on Macro Risk Assessment and Countermeasures of Cross-Border Capital Outflow in China

我国的跨境资金流动在2014年经历由持续流入到大幅流出的重要转折,其后跨境资金流动波动性加剧且周期性增强,这使得管理者和决策者更加关注跨境资金大幅流出对我国宏观经济的影响及大量资金的潜在流出风险。本文基于我国外汇储备余额变动情况,使用跨境资金流动阶段性度量方法对我国当前跨境资金流出风险进行测度和评估,并采用时变参数向量自回归模型进一步分析跨境资金流出对宏观经济的传导机制的影响效应。实证结论表明,当前我国面临较高的跨境资金流出压力,但资金流出的风险总体可控。但是,必须注意到,当前跨境资金流动波幅扩大对跨境资金流动管理和宏观审慎政策的实施提出了更高要求。

China's cross-border capital flows reached an important turning point from continuous inflow to substantial outflow in 2014,which made policymakers more concerned about the impact of cross-border capital outflows on China's macroeconomic and potential outflow risks.In this paper,we use the cross-border capital flow stage measurement method to assess the current cross-border capital outflow risk,based on the changes of the balance of foreign exchange reserves in China.Then the TVP-VAR model is used to analyze the impact of cross-border capital outflow on macro-economy.The conclusion shows that China faces higher pressure of cross-border capital outflow but the risk is generally controllable,and the expansion of cross-border capital flows has raised higher demands on current cross-border capital flow management.