中国家庭储蓄率反生命周期之谜——基于竞争性储蓄视角的分析

The puzzle of counter life-cycle of Chinese household saving rate:an analysis based on the perspective of competitive saving

我国居民高水平的储蓄率和快速的人口老龄化进程都是当前重要的基本国情,因此我国人口年龄转变对储蓄率的影响是值得深入探讨的重要命题。通过运用中国家庭追踪调查数据进行分析,发现我国城镇地区户主年龄同家庭储蓄率表现出与现有文献中发达国家不同的反生命周期现象,即随着户主年龄增加,家庭储蓄率经历先下降后上升的过程,呈现“U型”曲线关系。回归结果表明,竞争性储蓄行为提高了我国城镇居民特别是老年城镇居民家庭的储蓄率。因此,竞争性储蓄理论可以有效地解释我国家庭储蓄率的反生命周期现象。有成年未婚男性成员的家庭,会增加家庭储蓄率,并且未婚男性成员年龄越大,家庭储蓄率越高。然而有成年未婚女性成员的家庭并未表现出这一现象。相反,当成年未婚女性成员年龄较小时,其家庭储蓄率反而下降。为未婚家庭成员购买婚房,是竞争性储蓄行为的关键目标。对于拥有两套或多套住房的家庭,并不会表现出竞争性储蓄行为;相反,对于只拥有一套房产或无房产的家庭则表现出了竞争性储蓄行为。房屋价格是影响竞争性储蓄行为的重要因素,房屋价格的升高会显著提高老年家庭的储蓄率。上述研究结论的政策含义:为缓解竞争性储蓄压力,促进总体消费水平提高,政府应当从购买住房这一竞争性储蓄的主要目标入手解决,一方面继续坚决打击囤积房源、恶意炒房等行为,另一方面采取加快多渠道住房供应、完善城镇住房保障体系等措施,抑制房价的过快上升。

The high Chinese household saving rate and the rapid population aging are important basic national conditions at present,therefore the impact of population age transition on saving rate in China is an important topic worthy of in-depth discussion.Using the China Family Panel Studies survey data,we find that the age of household heads and their saving rate reveal a counter life-cycle relation different from the phenomenon in developed countries.It means that as the age of household heads increases,the household saving rate goes through a process of decreasing first and then increasing,which shows a U-shaped curve.The estimation results explain the puzzle by indicating that competitive saving increases Chinese household saving rate,especially the saving rates of elderly households.Households with unmarried adult male members tend to increase their saving rates.And the older the unmarried adult male members,the greater the household saving rates.However,households with unmarried adult female members do not have competitive saving motive.On the contrary,when adult unmarried female members are younger,their household saving rates even decline.Households with two or more properties do not show competitive saving behavior,but households with only one property or no property show competitive saving behavior.Housing price is an important factor influencing competitive saving behavior,and higher housing prices can significantly increase the saving rates of elderly households.The above findings have important policy implications:in order to relieve the pressure on competitive savings and promote an increase in the overall level of consumption,the government should first address the issues concerning the purchase of housing which is the main objective of competitive savings.On the one hand,the government should continue to resolutely combat the accumulation of housing stock and malicious property speculation;on the other hand,it should take measures to speed up the supply of multi-channel housing and improve the urban housing security system to curb the excessive rise in housing prices.In this way,the pressure on Chinese residents’competitive saving will be reduced in order to promote an increase in the overall level of consumption.