为什么收缩城市的流动人口定居意愿更强?

Why do migrants in the shrinking cities prefer to settle down?

我国的流动人口总量超过2亿人,让流动人口中能定居的人定居下来,对于城市治理、城镇化质量的提升都有所裨益。基于此,利用中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)和《中国城市统计年鉴》数据,对270个城市的流动人口定居意愿进行分析,发现收缩城市的流动人口定居意愿明显高于非收缩城市。为什么在净流入人口数连续为负、人口规模不断缩减的收缩城市中,流动人口的定居意愿却明显高于非收缩城市?通过构建Logit模型、空间杜宾模型(SDM)和空间杜宾误差模型(SDEM)等分别对个体层面和城市层面的流动人口定居意愿影响因素进行分析。结果发现收缩城市中流动人口的定居意愿比非收缩城市更强的原因主要有:①收缩城市中流动人口家庭成员同在流入地的比例较高,家庭团聚、人际关系网络集中等是收缩城市流动人口定居意愿较强的原因之一。②收缩城市的流动人口中女性比例较高是收缩城市流动人口定居意愿较高的另一个原因。同时,农业户籍、受教育程度较低等个体条件则限制了部分收缩城市的流动人口向非收缩城市流动。③收缩城市的住房等定居成本相对较低,流动人口容易跨越定居门槛,实现在流入城市的定居,从而使收缩城市流动人口的定居意愿高于非收缩城市。④周边城市的房价收入比、农业户籍流动人口比例、流动人口受教育年限等对本地流动人口的定居意愿影响显著。鉴于此,相关政策建议包括:随着我国城镇化的发展,收缩城市的数量有所增加,但收缩城市的流动人口定居意愿较强,使城市收缩会在一种相对稳定的状态中进行,不必进行过多的政策干预。进一步破除户籍等相关体制机制的阻碍,提高流动人口的受教育水平,对住房市场进行适度调控,保障合理的房价收入比,都有助于促进劳动力要素的自由流动,提高流动人口在城市的定居意愿。

China’s total floating population is more than 200 million.It will be beneficial for the improvement of urban management and urbanization quality to let more floating population settle down.Based on this,this paper uses the data of 270 cities from China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)and China Urban Statistical Yearbook to analyze the settlement desire of the floating population,and finds that the settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities is significantly stronger than that in the growing cities.Why is the settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities with a decreasing population size significantly stronger than that of the growing cities?In this paper,the Logit model,Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)and Spatial Durbin Error Model(SDEM)are constructed to analyze the resettlement desire of floating population at the individual level and the urban level respectively.The results show that:①The proportion of the floating population family members in the shrinking cities is higher than that in the growing cities,family reunion and the concentration of interpersonal networks are the reasons for the stronger settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities.②The high proportion of women in the floating population in shrinking cities is another reason for the strong settlement desire of the floating population in shrinking cities.At the same time,the characteristics of individuals’agricultural household registration and lower education level limit the flow of the floating population from the shrinking cities to the growing ones.③The costs of housing and other settlement conditions are relatively low in the shrinking cities,and it is easier for the floating population to cross the threshold of settlement and realize the settlement in the destination cities,resulting in a stronger settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities.④Some characteristics of the surrounding cities have a significant impact on the settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities,such as the ratio of housing price to income,the proportion of the floating population with agricultural household registration and the number of years of education of the floating population in the surrounding cities.In view of this,this study puts forward the following policy recommendations:Too much policy intervention is not needed against the shrinking cities,for the settlement desire of the floating population in shrinking cities remains strong,and the shrinking process remains relatively stable.The obstacles of household registration and other related systems and mechanisms should be further removed,the education level of the floating population should be improved and appropriate regulation of the housing market should be introduced to ensure a reasonable price income ratio to promote the free flow of labor elements and improve the desire of the floating population to settle down in the cities.