天然气消费替代效应与中国能源转型安全

Substitution effect of natural gas consumption and energy transition security in China

基于能源设备产能资本弹性-粘性特征,解构了产能投资、设备资产动态演变过程;建立能源替代系统动力学模型,揭示了我国天然气消费替代带来的能源供应安全冲击和能源设备资产搁浅的形成机理;模拟分析2019—2050年天然气替代下能源消费结构、供应安全和产能设备资产搁浅变化,提出了保障我国能源转型安全的能源结构优化路径。研究结果表明:①我国煤炭和石油产能资本存量过高,使市场形成了对传统化石能源消费的路径依赖,是天然气替代和能源清洁化转型的资本阻力,这也决定了采用天然气替代实现能源结构转型将是一个长期、渐进过程。②维持现有碳价(50元/t)和天然气溢价(-11472元/t oe)不变,到2050年我国天然气消费占比12%左右,以煤炭和石油消费为主的能源结构未得到根本性改观。③提高碳价、降低天然气溢价可以加大天然气对煤炭和石油的替代、强化电力等清洁能源消费的市场导向,但这是以降低能源供应安全和传统化石能源资产搁浅为代价的。④天然气替代的政策应该遵循能源产能资本弹性-粘性对能源结构优化路径的资本成本约束。为有效降低传统化石能源资产搁浅程度,且提高能源供应安全水平,我国可采取三种优化方案:天然气溢价降低60%;溢价降低从20%逐步增至60%;碳价从100元/t逐渐提高到600元/t,同时溢价降低从20%逐步增至60%。到2050年,这三种方案均可提高天然气消费占比到20%左右,降低煤炭和石油消费占比至60%以下。⑤保障我国能源转型安全需要加大碳市场和天然气市场改革与建设力度,充分发挥价格机制对能源消费和产能设备投资的市场调节作用;加强政府对能源市场投资的宏观调控,逐步减少煤炭和石油产能投资,增加天然气和电力等清洁能源产能投资。

Accelerating the development and utilization of natural gas and optimizing the energy structure are important tasks for China to promote energy production and consumption revolution and to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system.However,the energy structure transition will lead to energy assets stranding,supply security and system risks.To solve these issues,this study proposed a system dynamic model for energy substitution system in light of the putty-clay of energy equipment capital,getting a deep insight into the mechanism of natural gas substitution effects of energy supply security shock and assets stranding risk of traditional fossil fuels.Moreover,energy transition security was evaluated comprehensively from three dimensions of energy structure optimization,supply security and asset stranding,and several schemes for improving energy structure driven by natural gas substitution on transitional fossil fuels were put forward for future policymakers.The results showed that:①The huge coal and oil equipment capacity capital stock has led to the path dependence on the traditional fossil energy consumption,which is the capital resistance of natural gas substitution and clean energy transition.This means that there will be a long-term and gradual process for natural gas to substitute traditional fossil energies to realize energy structure transition.②If the existing carbon price(50 yuan/ton)and natural gas premium(-11472 yuan/toe)remain unchanged,China’s natural gas consumption will account for about 12%by 2050,and the energy structure dominated by coal and oil consumption will not have been fundamentally changed.③Increasing carbon price and reducing natural gas premium can increase the substitution of natural gas for coal and oil,and strengthen the market orientation of clean energy consumption,such as electricity.However,this is at the cost of energy supply security and assets stranding of traditional fossil fuels.④It is necessary for policymakers of natural gas substitution to follow the cost constraint of capacity capital putty-clay on energy structure optimization.Three optimal schemes should be adopted by 2050:reducing natural gas premium by 60%;decreasing the premium gradually from 20%to 60%;increasing carbon price gradually from 100 to 600 yuan/ton while decreasing the premium gradually form 20%to 60%.These three schemes can increase the proportion of natural gas consumption to about 20%,and reduce the proportion of coal and oil consumption to below 60%.⑤To ensure energy transition security,it is necessary to intensify the reform and construction of carbon market and natural gas market,and give full play to the market guiding effect of price mechanism on energy consumption and investment in equipment capital.At the same time,it is also necessary to strengthen the macro-control role of government investment in energy market to gradually reduce investment in coal and oil production capacity,to increase investment in equipment capacity capital of clean energies such as natural gas and electricity,to reduce asset stranding in the process of energy transition and to prevent systematic risks of energy supply.