Verhulst模型在公立中医医院次均卫生费用预测中的应用

Application of the Verhulst model in the prediction of average cost per time in public traditional Chinese medicine hospitals

目的:分析我国公立中医医院次均卫生费用变化情况,探讨Verhulst模型在公立中医医院次均卫生费用预测中的应用,并预测次均门诊与住院费用发展趋势。方法:采用描述性统计方法分析公立中医医院次均卫生费用相关指标变化趋势,利用灰色Verhulst模型方法建立门诊与住院次均费用预测模型。结果:公立中医医院次均门诊与住院费用逐年上升,增长率整体呈下降趋势;次均门诊与住院药品费用占比逐年下降,住院药品费用占比控制效果较好。本研究建立的两个模型精度评价为优秀,预测2019-2023年公立中医医院次均门诊与住院费用将会持续上涨。结论:灰色Verhulst模型适用于公立中医医院次均费用分析。公立中医医院整体费用控制效果较好,药事改革卓有成效,但要注意控制中西医结合医院和民族医医院次均费用过快增长现象。

Objective:To analyze the changes of average cost per time in public traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)hospitals,explore the application of the Verhulst model in the prediction of average cost per time in public TCM hospitals,and also to predict the development trend of average cost per time in the outpatient and inpatient departments.Methods:Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the trend of average cost per time in public TCM hospitals,and the gray Verhulst model was applied to establish a prediction model of average cost per time in the outpatient and inpatient departments.Results:The average cost per time in the outpatient and inpatient departments of public TCM hospitals increased year by year,and the overall growth rate showed a downward trend.The percentage of drug cost per time in the outpatient and inpatient departments decreased year by year,and there was a good controlling effect on the percentage of drug cost in the inpatient department.The accuracy of the two models established through study was excellent,and it was predicted that the average cost per time in the outpatient and inpatient departments of public TCM hospitals would continue to increase from 2019 to 2023.Conclusion:The grey Verhulst model could be applied to analyze the average cost per time in public TCM hospitals.The overall cost control effect in public TCM hospitals was good,and the pharmaceutical reform was highly successful.However,attention should be paid to the control of fast increase in average cost per time in those integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine hospitals as well as in ethnic medicine hospitals.