经济不确定性指数与中国货币政策调控有效性

Economic Uncertainty Index and Effectiveness of China’s Monetary Policy Regulation

本文利用主流财经报纸上与经济不确定性相关的文章报道频度,同时对《中国货币政策执行报告》进行文本分析和关键词搜索,分别构建经济不确定性指数用于度量中国经济运行中的风险或不确定性。基于经济不确定性指数的实证研究结果表明,经济不确定性会显著降低中国货币政策调控的有效性,尤其在高经济不确定性状态下,数量型和价格型货币政策工具对于经济产出和价格水平的调控有效性都会明显下降。

Based on the reporting frequency of articles related to economic uncertainty in mainstream financial newspapers as well as text analysis and keyword search on China’s Monetary Policy Implementation Report, this paper constructs economic uncertainty index to measure the risk or uncertainty in China’s economic operation. The empirical research results based on the economic uncertainty index show that economic uncertainty will significantly reduce the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy regulation, especially in the high economic uncertainty state, the regulative effectiveness of both quantitative monetary policy tools and price monetary policy instruments on the output and price level will significantly decline.