国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业就业的影响——来自企业层面的经验证据

The Impact of Foreign Trade Protection Measures on Chinese ManufacturingEmployment: Micro-evidence at Firm Level

在倾向得分匹配的基础上使用双重差分法实证检验国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业企业就业的影响,结果显示:国外贸易保护措施显著降低了受影响企业的就业增速;国外贸易保护措施通过抑制企业出口增长和倒逼企业技术升级降低了受影响企业的就业增速;国外贸易保护措施对高技能劳动力占比高的企业、本土企业以及中东部地区企业就业增长的抑制效应较小;本地含量要求、政府采购和补贴措施这3类贸易保护措施以及来自以美国为代表的中高收入国家的贸易保护措施对中国制造业企业就业增长的抑制效应更大。研究结论可以为中国应对国外贸易保护壁垒、稳定就业提供有益参考。

Based on the PSM-DID,this paper empirically tests the impact of foreign trade protection measures on the employment of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.The study finds that:foreign trade protection measures significantly reduce the employment growth rate of affected enterprises,and the conclusion is established after conducting robustness test from multiple angles.Foreign trade protection measures inhibit the growth of corporate exports,and promoting enterprises to upgrade their technology has reduced the employment growth rate of affected enterprises.Foreign trade protection measures have a low inhibitory effect on employment growth on the enterprises that account for a high proportion skilled workers labor,native and in eastern regions.Local content requirements,government procurement,and subsidy measures,and trade protection measures from middle-high income countries represented by the United States have a greater inhibitory effect on the employment growth of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.The conclusion of this paper provides a useful reference for how China should respond to trade protection barriers and stabilize employment.