中国自贸协定的贸易创造效应影响因素分析——基于动态关税对贸易流量变动的影响检验

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Trade Creation Effect of China's FTAs: ATest on the Impact of Dynamic Tariff Reduction on Trade Flow Changes

基于2002-2017年中国签署的自由贸易协定中关税分阶段减让引起的贸易流量变动,采用面板固定效应模型,针对不同贸易伙伴的特征,实证检验了经济规模、人均收入、地理距离和自然禀赋等因素对贸易创造效应的影响。研究结果发现:签署自由贸易协定为中国和贸易伙伴带来了显著的贸易创造效应,且随着贸易伙伴相似性提高,贸易创造效应更显著;与中国经济规模和人均收入越相似、地理距离越相近的国家,其贸易流量增长越显著;自然资源禀赋差异并未起明显作用。本研究为中国自由贸易协定战略评估体系的建立提出了建议,研究结论有助于为中国在自由贸易协定贸易伙伴的选择和谈判方面提供理论依据。

Based on the trade flow changes caused by phased tariff reductions under the FT As signed by China from 2002 to 2017,we use the panel fixed-effect model to empirically examine the influencing factors such as economic scale,per capita income,geographical distance,and natural endowment on the trade creation effects.The main findings are as follows:the FT As brought significant trade creation effects to China and its trading partners,and with the increasing similarity of the trading partners,the trade creation effect was more significant.What's more,partners'similarities in economic size,income and location among them affected the trade flows under an FTA;the differences in natural resource endowments did not play a significant role.The study provides suggestions for the establishment of China FTA strategic evaluation system,and the research findings offer a theoretical basis for the selection and negotiation of FTA trading partners.