摘要
为有效降低事故发生的概率,引入决策评价试验法(DEMATEL)与解释结构模型(ISM)相结合的风险分析方法,对水电工程高危施工作业中的人为影响因素进行分析。采用修正过的人为因素分类分析系统(HFACS)识别出高危施工作业中12个主要人为影响因素;针对专家在决策时的犹豫心理,引入犹豫度改进DEMATEL方法得出因素间的因果关系;将DEMATEL与ISM相结合,对因素间的复杂逻辑关系进行层级划分。该方法可以有效识别施工过程中风险关键因素和作用路径,为水电工程施工期事故安风险分析提供了新的解决思路。
In order to effectively reduce the probability of accidents,a risk analysis method combining decision evaluation test(DEMATEL)and interpretative structure model(ISM)is introduced to analyze the human factors of high-risk operations in the construction of hydropower projects.The modified human factor classification and analysis system(HFACS)is used to identify 12 key human factors in high-risk operations.Aiming at the hesitation psychology of experts in decision-making,the concept of hesitation fuzzy set is introduced,and the causal relationship between factors is obtained by using the hesitation fuzzy DEMATEL method.The DEMATEL is combined with ISM to classify the complex logical relations among factors.This method can effectively identify the key risk factors and action paths in the construction process,and provides a new solution for the safety risk analysis of accidents during the construction period of hydropower projects.
作者
解文婧
孙开畅
马文俊
XIE Wenjing;SUN Kaichang;MA Wenjun(School of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,China)
出处
《水力发电》
CAS
2021年第5期83-87,共5页
Water Power
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0805100)。
