性能退化轨迹模型参数的Bayes修正方法

Bayes Modification Method of Performance Degradation Path Model Parameter

针对设备可靠性高、失效寿命数据周期长、跟踪试验费用高导致的可靠性数据获取难的问题,提出了小子样条件下退化轨迹模型参数的Bayes修正方法,以某型柴油发动机实测数据检验了该方法的有效性,该方法对在役高可靠性设备小子样条件下性能退化评估有实际意义。

The key field of reliability assessment based on performance degradation data was to confirm the degradation model,but the exact estimate of degradation model parameter needed a mass of test data.Because of long test periods&high test cost,the failure lifetime of high-reliability equipment were obtained difficultly.The calculation of the performance path model parameter based on Bayes modification method was proposed under the condition of small sampling.An example of engine data was given to show the validity of this method.This method has practical guiding significance to similar problems.