河南省畜禽粪便的耕地污染及其未来风险预测

Livestock and poultry manure pollution and its future risk forecasting on farmland in Henan Province

全面分析2008—2017年河南省畜禽粪便的耕地污染并预测其未来风险,以期为河南省合理安排畜禽养殖业结构,进行畜禽养殖粪便污染整治工作提供理论依据。依据2008—2017年河南省畜禽养殖数据和耕地面积数据,分析近10年河南省畜禽粪便量、猪粪当量、耕地污染负荷情况,并对未来做出预测。结果表明:近10年河南省猪粪当量的排放量、耕地总氮负荷量、耕地总磷负荷量以及畜禽粪便耕地负荷污染风险指数均有所下降;近10年畜禽粪便污染风险较高的城市主要有平顶山、鹤壁、许昌和漯河,且2017年鹤壁和漯河的畜禽粪便污染风险高,应加强对畜禽粪便的管控与处理。预计在未来,河南省猪的养殖量将迅速增加,到2025年,漯河的预警级别将由Ⅱ级变成Ⅲ级,到2030年,开封和濮阳的预警级别将由Ⅱ级变成Ⅲ级,因此,应重点加强对河南省开封、濮阳和漯河的畜禽粪便污染的防控。

It was analysed comprehensively for farmland pollution by the livestock and poultry manure in Henan Province from 2008 to 2017 and forecasting its future risks,which providing a theoretical basis for Henan Province to arrange rationally the structure of the livestock and poultry breeding industry and carry out the work of pollution control.The study was based on the livestock and poultry breeding data and farmland area data of Henan Province from 2008 to 2017,and analysed the livestock and poultry manure volume,pig dung equivalent,and pollution load of farmland in Henan Province,and made a forecast for the future.The results showed that in the past ten years,the pig dung equivalent emissions,total nitrogen load,total phosphorus load,and pollution risk index of livestock and poultry manure’s farmland load declined.The cities within the highest risk of livestock and poultry manure pollution were Pingdingshan,Hebi,Xuchang and Luohe,and Hebi and Luohe’s livestock and poultry manure pollution risks were the highest in 2017,so the control and treatment of livestock and poultry manure should be strengthened.In the future,the pig population in Henan Province will increase rapidly,and the warning level of Luohe will change from gradeⅡto gradeⅢin 2025,and the warning levels of Kaifeng and Puyang will change from gradeⅡto gradeⅢin 2030.So the prevention and control of livestock and poultry manure pollution in Kaifeng,Puyang and Luohe in Henan Province should be strengthened.