气候变化和人类活动对太子河流域径流变化的贡献

Contributions of Climate Changes and Human Activities to Runoff Change in the Taizihe Basin

为揭示气候变化与人类活动对太子河流域径流量变化的影响,基于1961—2018年气温、降水量等常规观测资料以及水文站径流量资料,采用线性回归分析、累积距平等方法,对该流域径流量、面降水量及潜在蒸散量趋势特征、突变点进行统计分析。在此基础上,采用累积量斜率变化率比较法定量估算不同时期气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献。结果表明:1961—2018年,太子河流域径流量与面降水量、潜在蒸散量均呈现微弱减少趋势,径流量和面降水量分别在1975、1984、1996、2009年发生显著突变,而面潜在蒸散量仅在1983年发生显著突变。径流量与面降水量、潜在蒸散量存在极显著的相关关系,径流量随着降水量增加、潜在蒸散量减少而增大。根据径流量的突变点将研究时段划分为5个时期,与基准期1961—1975年相比,1976—1984年、1985—1996年、1997—2009年及2010—2018年气候因子对径流量变化的贡献率分别为23.24%、-0.08%、18.57%及28.45%,而人类活动的贡献率分别为76.76%、100.08%、81.43%及71.55%,表明人类活动是太子河流域径流量减少的主要影响因素。

In order to reveal the influence of climate change and human activity on runoff in the Taizihe basin,based on conventional observation data including temperature and precipitation at five meteorological stations and runoff at a hydrological station of Liaoning Province during 1961-2018,the trend and mutation characteristics of runoff,areal precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were analyzed statistically by using linear regression analysis and cumulative anomaly methods,etc.And on this basis,the contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff change were estimated quantitatively by using slope change ratio of cumulative quantity(SCRCQ).The results show that the runoff and areal precipitation,potential evapotranspiration decreased slightly in the Taizihe basin during 1961-2018 as a whole,and the significant mutation of runoff and areal precipitation occurred in 1975,1984,1996 and 2009,while that of areal potential evapotranspiration occurred in 1983.The correlations of runoff with areal precipitation,potential evapotranspiration were extremely significant,and the runoff increased with increase of precipitation and decrease of potential evapotranspiration.The study period was divided into five stages according to the abrupt point of runoff.Compared with the base period(1961-1975),the contribution rates of climate change to runoff decrease were 23.24%,-0.08%,18.57%and 28.45%during 1976-1984,1985-1996,1997-2009 and 2010-2018,respectively,while for human activities they were 76.76%,100.08%,81.43%and 71.55%,respectively,which indicated that the human activities played an dominant role in decreasing of runoff in the Taizihe basin.