气温对秦皇岛市儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响

Effect of Temperature on Children’s Respiratory Diseases in Qinhuangdao of Hebei Province

利用秦皇岛市妇幼保健院2013年1月至2016年8月儿科住院病例资料,采用基于时间序列的泊松广义相加模型,控制时间长期趋势、节假日、星期几效应及环境气象混杂因素的影响,分析气温与儿童呼吸系统疾病住院人数的暴露-反应关系,并按季节、性别分层分析。结果表明,气温对住院人数的影响存在滞后和累积效应,且当日至滞后2 d滑动累积平均气温(T_(0-2))对疾病住院人数影响效应最大,与住院人数存在非线性相关关系。冷季男童和女童T_(0-2)最适值分别为4.0℃、-2.9℃,暖季男童、女童T_(0-2)的最适值分别为16.3℃、16.5℃。当T_(0-2)在低于最适值时降低以及在高于最适值时升高,均导致住院危险度(RR)增大,女童冷季低温效应及暖季高温效应大于男童。

The purpose of this paper was to quantitatively analyze the temperature affecting the number of hospitalized children with respiratory diseases in coastal cities.Based on the medical records of pediatrics in Maternity and Child Care Center of Qinhuangdao from January 2013 to August 2016,the Poisson generalized additive model based on time series was used to analyze the exposures-response relationship between air temperature and the number of hospitalized children with respiratory diseases by controlling the long-term trend of time,holiday,day of the week effect and the influence of environmental meteorological factors.The analysis was stratified by season and sex.The results show that there were lag and cumulative effects of air temperature on the number of inpatients,and the sliding cumulative mean air temperature with a lag of two days(T_(0-2))had the best effect on the number of hospitalized patients,and there was a nonlinear correlation with the number of inpatients.In cold season,the optimal value of T_(0-2) for boys and girls was 4.0℃and-2.9℃,respectively,and in warm season,the optimal value of T_(0-2) for boys and girls was 16.3℃and 16.5℃,respectively.The decrease of T_(0-2) when it was below the optimal value and the increase when it was above the optimal value both led to the increase of hospital admission risk(RR).Both in cold and warm seasons,there was a significant gender difference in RR.The effect of low temperature in cold season and high temperature in warm season of girls was greater than that of boys.