乌蒙山区毕节市农业旱灾风险评估

Agricultural drought risk assessment of Bijie City in Wumeng Mountain areas

旱灾是影响贵州山区主要的气象灾害,对农业生产影响极大,科学评估农业旱灾风险对抵抗干旱、减少灾害损失具有重要意义。以乌蒙山区毕节市为例,在综合考虑旱灾四阶段“诱发、孕灾、成灾、救灾”特征的基础上,从水分、综合环境保水能力与用水情况、农业脆弱性和救灾保障四方面构建指标体系,用熵值法在县域尺度对毕节市旱灾风险进行综合评估。结果显示:毕节市旱灾风险较大,平均风险等级为较高风险;综合旱灾风险由西部向东部递减,旱灾高风险区占全市面积的48.24%,主要分布在赫章县、威宁县与七星关区,较高风险区、中等风险区和低等风险区各占22.17%、18.92%、10.67%;从旱灾发生的阶段来看,毕节市诱发期和救灾期的风险较大。今后应加强旱灾预警和救灾保障。

Drought is the main meteorological disaster that affects agricultural production in the mountainous areas of Guizhou.Scientific assessment of agricultural drought risk is of great significance for resisting drought and reducing disaster loss.Taking Bijie City in Wumeng Mountain area as an example,based on comprehensive consideration of the characteristics of the four stages of drought,we built an indicator system from the aspects of water conditions,comprehensive environmental water retention capacity and water use conditions,agricultural fragility,and disaster relief capacity.The entropy method was used to comprehensively assess the drought risk at county level.The results show that the drought risk in Bijie City is relatively high,and the average risk level is medium-high;the comprehensive drought risk decreases from the west to the east;the high drought risk areas account for 48.24%of the city’s area,which mainly distribute in Hezhang County,Weining County and Qixingguan District;medium-high risk areas,medium risk areas,and low risk areas account for 22.17%,18.92%,and 10.67%of the city’s area,respectively.Considering the stages of drought,Bijie City has higher risk during the induction period and the disaster relief period.In the future,drought warning and disaster relief capacity should be strengthened.