网购促进家庭消费升级了吗?——基于CFPS2018的实证研究

Has Online Shopping Upgraded Household Consumption?An Empirical Study Based on CFPS2018

网络购物的普及丰富了居民消费方式,也影响着家庭消费结构,经济新常态的背景和新冠疫情的冲击,刺激消费再次成为各级政府的工作重点,而消费结构的升级能够反映消费水平和发展趋势,是中国经济平稳运行的"顶梁柱"、高质量发展的"助推器",更是满足人民美好生活需要的直接体现。因此,本文使用2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,分析了网购对家庭消费结构的影响,在控制年龄、婚姻状况、受教育程度和健康状况等反映家庭经济情况及其成员个体特征的变量后,网购行为能够显著促进家庭消费结构的升级;考虑到可能存在的内生性等问题,使用工具变量、倾向得分匹配和分位数回归等方法进行了进一步检验,仍能得到网购行为可以显著促进家庭消费升级的结论,表明基准回归结果是稳健的;此外,发现网购对高收入家庭消费升级的影响大于对中低收入家庭的影响,对城乡居民的影响没有显著差别。刺激居民消费、增加居民消费活力、改善居民家庭消费结构,可通过推动农村和中小城市的电商发展,发挥网购对居民发展与享受型消费的刺激和促进来实现,发展电商有益于优化家庭消费结构,刺激消费,为我国经济增长提供充足的内生动力。

The popularity of online shopping enriches the consumption mode of residents,also affects the family consumption structure,the background of the new normal of economy and the impact of the new crown epidemic,making stimulating consumption once again become the focus of the work of governments at all levels.Using the data of China’s household follow-up survey(CFPS)in 2018,this paper analyzes the impact of online shopping on household consumption structure,and finds that online shopping behavior can significantly promote the upgrading of household consumption structure.Further tests are carried out by using tool variables,tendency score matching and quantile regression,and the results are still stable.In addition,this paper finds that the impact of online shopping on the consumption structure of high-income families is greater than that of low-income families,and there is no significant difference between urban and rural residents.Stimulating the consumption of residents,increasing the vitality of consumption and improving the consumption structure of households can be realized by promoting the development of e-commerce in rural areas and small and medium-sized cities,giving full play to the stimulation and promotion of online shopping on the development and enjoyment consumption of residents.The development of e-commerce is conducive to optimizing the structure of household consumption,stimulating consumption and providing sufficient endogenous power for China’s economic growth.