山区二级公路穿城镇路段摩托车事故严重程度分析

Analysis of Motorcycle Crash Severity in Crossing-town Segment of Mountainous Secondary Highways

文中基于近6年云南典型山区二级公路的3个穿城镇路段的事故数据,采用描述性统计分析摩托车事故的时空特征、涉事车型和事故原因,利用二项Logistic模型定量分析摩托车事故的驾驶员年龄、事故时间、事故车型、路段线形、交叉口特征、天气、交通设施与事故严重程度的关系,筛选影响摩托车事故严重程度的重要因素.结果表明:年龄在60岁以上老年人、20岁以下青少年驾驶员发生严重事故是20-40岁的青壮年的5.156倍和4.331倍;路侧为农田或稀落农舍的直线路段发生严重事故是路侧存在居民区和商业中心的2.451倍;夜间有路灯照明路段相比无路灯照明,发生严重事故概率降低了26%;无路中隔离设施路段发生严重事故是有路中隔离设施的2.635倍.

Based on the accident data of three urban sections of secondary roads in typical mountainous areas of Yunnan in recent six years,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics,involved models and accident causes of motorcycle accidents by descriptive statistics.The binomial Logistic model was used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the driver′s age,accident time,accident vehicle type,road alignment,intersection characteristics,weather,traffic facilities and accident severity.Important factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents were screened.The results show that the serious accidents of drivers over 60 years old and young people under 20 years old are 5.156 times and 4.331 times higher than those of young adults between 20 and 40 years old.Serious accidents on straight road sections with farmland or sparse farmhouses on the roadside are 2.451 times that of residential areas and commercial centers on the roadside.Compared with the road sections without street lighting at night,the probability of serious accidents is reduced by 26%.Serious accidents occurred in isolated facilities without roads are 2.635 times more than those in isolated facilities with roads.