蓝莓开花期灰霉病气象风险综合指数研究

Study on Comprehensive Meteorological Risk Index of Botrytis cinerea in Flowering Stage

该文立足麻江蓝莓核心种植区麻江县,丹寨县调查现状,使用1987—2019年麻江、丹寨国家气象站地面观测资料,通过文献分析法建立了蓝莓开花期灰霉病气象风险等级指标,在此基础上尝试构建了蓝莓灰霉病气象风险综合指数1,通过序列分析和M-K检验对该指数进行评估,并使用种植园实况观测资料反向验证。结果表明:2014年为近33 a最大综合指数(I=74),这与当年因严重灰霉病蓝莓减产70%相吻合;较高综合指数年份(I≥25)均出现在丹寨;高逐日风险等级日数并非是造成高综合指数的关键,较多的中低风险等级日数累积也能造成较高的综合指数;综合指数在2018—2019年乌卡坪,龙奔的评估验证中与果园实地调研吻合,具有一定客观指示意义。

This paper is based on the investigation of Ma'jiang and Dan'zhai County,especially the coreplanting area of Majiang blueberry.Using the regular ground observation data of Ma'jiang and Danzhai nationalmeteorological stations from 1987 to 2019,the metcorological risk grade index of blueberry grey mould disease inflowering period was established by literature analysis.And an altempt was made to construct the meteorological riskcomposite index I of blueberry grey mould diseasc,which was evaluated by sequence analysis,M-K test and fieldinvestigation results.The index I was also reversely validated by the observing dala of plantation.The results showthat 2014 was the largest composite index in the past 33 years(I=74),which was consistent with the fact what theoutput fell by 70%due to severe grey mold.The years with high composite index(I≥25)all appeared in Dan'zhai County.High risk level on a daily basis days is not the key to high composite index,more low risk level daysaccumulated can also result in higher comprehensive index.The composite index is consistent with the field surveyof orchards in the evaluation and verification of Ukaping and Longben in 2018—2019,which is of certain indicativesignificance.