基于加权线性回归模型的武汉解封时间的预测

Prediction for End Time of Epidemic in Wuhan Based on Weighted Linear Regression Model

新型冠状病毒爆发于湖北省武汉市,随后快速波及中国31个省市,如今在全世界多个国家开始蔓延,给世界发展带来巨大压力.武汉何时解封是人们非常关心的问题.本文应用加权最小二乘回归模型,研究中国湖北省接受医学观察人数的发展特点和趋势,基于回归模型预测结果与实际情况相结合进行修正,并分析模型的预测准确性,预测武汉解封时间.运用上述方法,借助湖北省卫健委发布的疫情数据,得出以下结论:湖北省正在接受医学观察人数的环比变化率呈现线性发展趋势且已经持续46天.预测湖北省疫情大致缓解时间将在4月5日,--,4月7日左右,这与武汉4月8日``解封''高度吻合.由于疫情数据量小,故虽然线性回归预测模型方法简单,但预测准确性高,也可为其他国家疫情预测提供参考.该方法也可用于将来疫情反弹或二次爆发后的预测或其他紧急传染病预测.

The new coronavirus originated in Wuhan,Hubei and rapidly spread to 31 provinces and cities in China and many countries around the world,putting tremendous pressure on world development.When COVID-19 epidemic will end is the issue which draws most attention.Here,this paper applies weighted least squares regression model to study the development characteristics and trends of the number of people under medical observation in Hubei.We modify the predictions for end time of epidemic by combining predicted results of the regression model and actual situation and measure accuracy of model predictions.Applying the above method and using the epidemic data released by Health Commission of Hubei Province,the following conclusions were reached:the day-on-day change rate of the number of people under medical observation showed a linear development trend and has lasted for 46 days;the number of people under medical observation in Hubei dropped to 0 on April 16;after revising the prediction results,the end time of epidemic in Hubei Province should be not earlier than April 5 and not later than April 7.In addition,we find that the weighted linear regression prediction model method is simple and has high prediction accuracy.