基于模糊层次分析法的黔西南岩溶石漠化演化趋势预测及评价

Prediction and Evaluation of the Rocky Desertification Evolution Trend in Southwest Guizhou Province Based on the Method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

以岩溶石漠化及水土流失现象较为严重的黔西南地区为研究对象,应用模糊层次分析法,结合研究区地层岩性、地形地貌、土地利用模式、覆盖层条件、人类活动、气候条件等概况,对黔西南地区岩溶石漠化的演化趋势进行分析。首先确定石漠化演化的影响因子及各因子的权重值,据此划分石漠化强度等级,然后根据各权重建立数学模型进行演化趋势的预测。结果显示:研究区内主要呈现中度至重度的石漠化现象,中度石漠化分布面积略大于重度石漠化分布面积,但二者差别不大;无石漠化地区基本上不存在,并且各种石漠化现象处于动态变化中。该研究对于石漠化地区的生态恢复和社会发展具有重要的理论意义。

In the southwestern Guizhou Province,where the rocky desertification and soil and water loss are serious.The aim of this paper is used the method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to forecast the evolution trend of rocky desertification in the area,also combine the topography,geological conditions,climatic conditions,hydrological conditions,land use patterns,human activities,etc.This work shows the influence factors of rocky desertification evolution and its weight value,the rocky desertification intensity grade,and the evolution trend of rocky desertification in the area.The results show that:The main distribution in the study area are moderate to intense rocky desertification,the moderate rocky desertification area is slightly larger than that of intense rocky desertification,but there is little difference between them.Areas where none rocky desertification occurs basically do not exist.And the degree of rocky desertification is in dynamic changes.This work further developed effective rocky desertification and soil erosion control measures,which are great significance for the ecological restoration and social development of rocky desertification areas.