海洋资源约束与海洋经济增长——基于中美经验的比较

Marine Resources Constraints and Marine Economic Growth—A Comparative Study of the Experience of China and the United States

为了比较中美两国海洋资源对海洋经济增长的促进作用,本文利用中国11个沿海省份和美国30个沿海地区2006—2016年的面板数据,并将海洋的资本、劳动力和科技投入作为影响海洋资源和经济增长的门槛变量建立门槛回归模型。研究表明,无论是中国还是美国,海洋资源对经济增长的影响均不存在资本投入的门槛效应,随着资本投入的增加,海洋经济呈现出正向发展的趋势;美国海洋资源对于海洋经济增长的影响不存在劳动力投入的门槛效应,而中国在不同的劳动力水平下,两者呈现出倒“U”型变化趋势;海洋资源对于中美两国经济增长均存在科技投入的门槛效应,两国变化趋势保持一致,随着科技投入的增加,海洋资源对于经济增长的驱动效应呈现出先大后小的发展规律。基于以上分析,中国应增加海洋资本投入、推动劳动密集型产业向资本技术密集型产业转型发展、重视海洋人才的培养、重视海洋科技的创新等来提高海洋资源的开发利用效率,从而促进中国海洋经济高质量发展。

In order to compare the role of marine resources in China and the United States in promoting marine economic development,this article adopts panel data from 11 coastal provinces in China and 30 coastal regions in the United States from 2006 to 2016,and uses marine capital,labor,and technology inputs as the threshold variable affecting marine resources and economic development to construct a threshold regression model.The study shows that the impact of marine resources on economic development does not have a threshold effect of capital investment in China or the United States.With the increase of capital investment,the marine economy is showing a trend of positive development in both countries.There is no threshold effect of labor input on the marine resources affecting the development of the marine economy in the United States,while in China at different labor levels,marine resources and marine economic growth show an inverted U-shaped trend.Marine resources have a threshold effect of technological investment on the economic development both in China and the United States,and the changes in the two countries remain consistent.As technological investment increases,the driving effect of marine resources on economic development shows a law of development being first big and then small.Based on the above analysis,this article argues that China should increase marine capital investment,transform labor-intensive industries into capital and technology-intensive industries,and attach importance to the training of marine talents and marine technical innovation to improve the efficiency of marine resource development and utilization,hence promoting the high-quality development of China's marine economy.