人口政治学视角下“阿拉伯之春”根源探析

Study on the Origin of"Arab Spring"from the Perspective of Political Demography

在导致“阿拉伯之春”反政府运动爆发并蔓延的各种内外部因素中,国家内部的结构性因素是其根源。“阿拉伯之春”五国的人口增长使五国人口结构年轻化,贫富差距大、青年人口失业率高和长期专制独裁造成制度僵化,这些社会结构性特征导致人口增长。人口结构变化对制度体系造成巨大压力,而僵化的制度不能及时、正确地因应这种巨大的社会压力和强烈的社会诉求。这种以人口社会结构为基础的人口政治学效应成为“阿拉伯之春”发生、发展的根本原因。

Among all factors inside and outside which lead to the eruption and spread of the"Arab Spring",the structural factors inside the countries are fundamental cause.In five Arab countries,population growth result in the younger of population structure.The social structural features such as,wealth gap,serious rate of unemployment of the youth,ossified political system caused by long dictatorship,bring about the strong stress over political system which originated from population growth and the change of population structure.Meanwhile,the ossified political system cannot response to this social stress and social demands in time and correctly.This effect of the population politics which based on demographicsocial structure is the basic cause of the"Arab Spring".