人口流动特征对流动人口住房选择影响机制分析——以广东省为例

Analysis on the Influencing Mechanism of the Characteristics of Population Migration on the Housing Choice of Floating Population——Taking Guangdong Province as an Example

基于2017年广东省流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用无序多分类Logistic模型,分别分析流动时间、流动范围、流入城市类型对流动人口住房选择的影响。研究发现:流动时间、流动范围、流入城市类型均对其住房选择影响显著,流动时间长的省内流动人口更可能拥有自有产权住房,三、四线城市的跨省流动人口更倾向于选择免费住房,而一、二线城市的流动人口更愿意选择租赁住房。另外,流入地城市发展差异对流动人口住房选择的影响方向基本一致,但影响程度有显著差异。因此,建议优化租赁住房供应体系,完善户籍制度和住房保障制度,因城施策,推广差异化住房公积金制度以及实现公共服务均等化等。

Based on the data of the dynamic monitoring survey of floating population in Guangdong Province in 2017,an unordered multi-class Logistic model was used to analyze the impact of the flow time,flow range,and type of inflow city on the housing choice of the floating population.This study found that the time of migration,the scope of migration,and the type of inflow cities have a significant impact on the housing choices of the population.Provincial migrants with long migration times are more likely to have their property housing;inter-provincial migrants in third-and fourth-tier cities are more likely to choose free housing,and floating population in first-and second-tier cities are more willing to choose rental housing.Besides,the impact of the differences in the urban development of the inflowing areas on the housing selection of the floating population is the same,but there are significant differences in terms of the degree of impact.Therefore,it is recommended to optimize the rental housing supply system,improve the household registration system and housing security system,implement measures based on the city,promote a differentiated housing provident fund system,and achieve equalization of public services.