教育投资、经济增长与波动:基于微观路径的最优化视角

Educational Investment,Economic Growth and Economic Fluctuation:Perspective Based on Optimal Micro-path

随着教育事业在经济社会发展中占有越来越重要的地位,教育投资水平与宏观经济周期的关系也愈发变得不容忽视。在微观主体行为优化基础上构建跨期优化模型研究教育投资对宏观经济的传导效应,进而探索了在不同经济目标下的最优教育投资水平。研究发现:第一,在促进经济增长这一目标下,最优教育投资水平与人口增长率有关,而在稳定经济波动这一目标下,最优教育投资水平还与无风险利率有关;第二,教育投资缺口与经济增长有显著的负向关系,但与经济波动有显著的正向关系;第三,我国应该增加教育支出还是减小教育支出一方面取决于教育投资的使用效率,另一方面还取决于经济目标更偏好于促进增长还是稳定波动。考虑到我国当前经济新常态时期出现经济增速下滑现象,增加教育投资或是未来一段时间的较佳选择。

As education plays an increasingly important role in the economic and social development,the relationship between the level of education investment and the macro-economic cycle is becoming more and more important.Based on that,in the paper,we build a cross period optimization model to study the transmission of education investment to the macro-economy through the behavior optimization of micro actors,and then explore the optimal level of education investment under different economic objectives.It is found that,there is a significant negative relationship between educational investment gap and economic growth,but there is a significant positive relationship between educational investment gap and economic fluctuation.It is found that there is a trade off phenomenon in the decision regarding the increase or decrease of educational investment level in China,which should be determined according to the preference of economic objectives.However,in view of the economic growth decline in the new normal period of China’s economy,increasing education investment maybe a better choice for a period of time in the future.